Model Performance
Barton Creek flow model — hindcast vs. what actually happened,
2013 to present
Each colored line shows what the model would have predicted
1–7 days ahead at that moment, using only information available at
the time; the black line is the observed flow. Blue spikes hanging from
the top of each panel are basin rainfall. Use the 1y / 2y / 5y /
All buttons (top left of the chart) or drag to explore any period
back to 2013. Shaded eras matter:
the model learned from data through 2019, was tuned against
2020–2022, and 2023 onward was never used for training or
tuning — that region shows true out-of-sample performance. Drag to zoom,
double-click to reset.